A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
